作　者：张鹏
关键词：人口老龄化；地方债券；收入效应；支出效应
摘　要：

中国人口老龄化程度加剧，对中国经济增长造成冲击，也对地方财政运行产生普遍影响。人口老龄化会不断扩大地方债券信用利差，提高地方政府发行债券融资成本。那些个人所得税收入低于全国平均的省份、人口净流出省份和资本市场发育程度较低的省份，受到人口老龄化的影响更为突出。人口老龄化导致生产性人口减少、生产性活动减弱，既会降低地方财政收入特别是税收收入，也会推高地方财政支出特别是医疗与社会保障等支出，使地方债券违约风险增高，信用利差持续扩大。顺应老龄化时代资产配置需求变化，大力发展债券市场，实施与老龄化相关的银发产业行动，有利于地方债券市场健康发展，能不断降低地方债券融资成本。

 

The Aging Population and Credit Spreads of Local Government Bonds

Zhang Peng（The Chinese Academy of Social Sciences）

Abstract The acceleration of population aging in China has not only posed a challenge to its economic growth but also exerted a general impact on local fiscal operations. The aging population tends to expand the credit spreads of local government bonds and increase the financing costs of local governments in issuing bonds. Provinces with personal income tax revenues lower than the national average, those experiencing net population outflows and those with less developed capital markets are more vulnerable to population aging. Population aging leads to a decrease in productive population and a decline of productive activities, which will not only reduce local fiscal revenues, particularly tax revenues, but also drive up local fiscal expenditure, especially in areas such as medicare and social security. This, in turn, will heighten the default risks of local bonds and perpetuate the expansion of credit spreads. In response to the changes in asset allocation needs in the aging era, vigorously developing the bond market and implementing silver economy-related industrial initiatives are conducive to the healthy development of the local bond market and the continuous reduction of local bond financing costs.

Key words  population aging; local government bonds; income effect; expenditure effect

 

■    作者简介  张  鹏，中国社会科学院经济研究所副研究员，中国社会科学院大学经济学院副教授，北京 100836。

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