作　者：徐英瑾
关键词：概率；判知结论浮动；语境主义；不变主义；固知需求；异常使真者
摘　要：

“判知结论浮动”指的是面对同样的信念，只要产生这个信念的内外条件发生了变化，知识裁判人就会对这个信念本身的知识地位做出不同的评估。英美知识论学界用于解释判知结论浮动的主流理论，包括语境主义、比对主义、不变主义，等等。这些理论都可以被顺化为一个统一的概率学框架。根据这一框架，一个信念P 的知识地位的稳固程度，取决于这个信念本身抵御其“异常使真者”之颠覆的能力，抵御力的大小，也可以得到概率学的表征。“异常使真者”能引导主体产生P 的信念，却又不是直接与P 对应的那个“正常事实”，而是某个非常反常的、其出现又具有极大偶然性的事实，因此，“异常使真者”的引入是会削弱信念P 的知识地位的。不过，对于到底哪些具体的认知因素可以充当“异常使真者”这一点， 统一框架持一种多元主义的态度，亦能够方便我们在哲学层面上以多元主义态度应对各种关于判知结论浮动的成因。西方学界针对判知结论浮动问题的主流解释方略，往往夸大某个导致判知结论浮动的因素的影响力，忽略了其他成因，难免陷入“盲人摸象”之境地。

关键词     概率；判知结论浮动；语境主义；不变主义；固知需求；异常使真者

 

A Pluralist Framework for Probabilistically Formalizing Epistemic Shifts

Xu Yingjin（Fudan University）

Abstract The term "epistemic shifts" refers to a widely recognized phenomenon that knowledge as‐ cribers would ascribe different epistemic statuses to the same belief under different internal/external condi‐ tions. Mainstream theories explaining shifts including contextualism, contrastivism, and intellectual invarian‐ tism, can all be assimilated into a unified probabilistic framework, according to which the epistemic status of  a belief P can be at least partially evaluated in terms of the epistemic defensive power of such a belief vis-à- vis the epistemic undermining power of certain "abnormal truth-makers of the belief P". Here "abnormal truth- makers of the belief P" means P-inducing facts which are not P-corresponding facts simpliciter but facts which seem to be both weird and abnormal. However, in the new framework, no further specification would be made to associate "abnormal truth-makers of the belief P" with a single specific epistemic factor concerning shifts, otherwise the framework cannot be pluralist enough to embrace a wide spectrum of shift-related epistemic factors. I will further claim that by accepting my framework, a theorist of shifts has to tolerate a pluralist view of the etiology of shifts on the philosophical level, and mainstream theories explaining shifts are  all flawed in the sense that they all attempt to exaggerate one single and particular factor underpinning shifts by ignoring others.

Key words         probability；epistemic shifts；contextualism；invariantism；need-for-closure；abnormal truth-maker

 

作者简介 徐英瑾，哲学博士，复旦大学哲学学院教授、博士生导师；上海 200433。

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