作　者：刘卫平 马永健
关键词：货币政策调整；金融危机；量化宽松；货币政策正常化；经济影响
摘　要：

基于美国常规货币政策、量化宽松货币政策和新冠肺炎疫情背景下货币政策调整三个方面，综合运用向量自回归模型和事件分析法系统研究后金融危机时期美国货币政策调整对中国经济的影响，可发现：美国联邦基金利率的上涨在量化宽松货币政策区间对中国经济具有较强的正向溢出效应，而在货币政策正常化区间表现为负面影响；美国量化宽松货币政策的实施总体对中国宏观经济具有显著的负面溢出效应，表现为“以邻为壑”效应；新冠肺炎疫情背景下美联储零利率政策相比紧急降息和无限量量化宽松政策更能对中国股票市场、债券市场和外汇市场产生广泛而显著的影响，最终导致中国股票市场全面下挫、债券市场下行以及人民币相对美元贬值的复杂局面。

 

Impacts of US Monetary Policy Adjustment on China’s Economy in the Post-financial Crisis Era

Liu Weiping (China Development Bank; Wuhan University)

Ma Yongjian (Xi’an Jiaotong University; Hubei University of Economics)

 

Abstract Based on US conventional monetary policy，quantitative easing monetary policy and monetary policy adjustment under the situation of novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic. The results are as follows. First，the rise of the US federal funds rate has a relatively strong positive spillover effect on China’s economy in the quantitative easing monetary policy interval，but it has a negative impact in the normalization of the monetary policy. Second，the implementation of US quantitative easing monetary policy has a significant negative spillover effect on China’s macro economy，which is manifested as the beggar-thy-neighbor effect. Third， compared with the emergency interest rate cuts and unlimited quantitative easing policy under the situation of novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic，the Fed’s zero interest rate policy can have more extensive and significant impacts on China’s stock market，bond market and foreign exchange market，which may ultimately led to complicated situations, including a comprehensive decline in the stock market，a downward bond market and the devaluation of the RMB against the US dollar.

Key words monetary policy adjustment; financial crisis; quantitative easing; monetary policy normalization; economic impact

 

■ 作者简介 刘卫平，经济学博士、社会学博士，国家开发银行研究员，武汉大学经济与管理学院兼职教授；北京 100032；

马永健，经济学博士，西安交通大学管理学院助理研究员，湖北经济学院金融学院讲师；湖北 武汉 430205。

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