作　者：马海燕 严 良
关键词：产品复杂度；制度质量；产业升级；产品空间
摘　要：

依据产品空间理论，国家经济可视为在集体累积能力的基础上创造产品的系统，产业升级是对经济系统结构发展水平优劣的刻画。以产品空间理论为基础，融入制度理论，构建国家层面产品复杂度、制度质量与产业升级的理论模型，借助 120 个国家 1990-2016 年的面板数据，对产品复杂度与产业升级的关系以及制度质量如何影响这种关系进行实证   检验，研究发现：第一，产品复杂度与产业升级形态上呈现倒 U 型关系。产品复杂度提升在带来收益报酬的同时也伴随着风险与竞争性反应。国家产品复杂度从低往高提升时，与产业升级显著正相关；当产品复杂度达到偏上水准，则与产业升级显著负相关。第二，制度质量对产品复杂度与产业升级具有正向调节作用。这意味着制度质量高的国家更容易实现产品复杂度对产业升级的正向效应。相较于经济制度，政治与金融制度质量的影响更为稳健。

    

Product Complexity, Institutional Quality and Industrial Upgrading

Ma Haiyan, Yan Liang (China University of Geosciences (Wuhan))

Abstract According to product space theory, national economy can be regarded as a system for creating products based on collective accumulation capacity, and industrial upgrading is the embodiment of development of economic system structure. Based on product space theory and institution theory, this article constructs a conceptual model of product complexity, institutional quality and industrial upgrading at the national level, and empirically tests the model by analyzing panel data from 120 countries in 1990-2016 with the following results. Firstly, the relationship between product complexity and industrial upgrading is inverted u-shaped, as increased product complexity brings not only benefits but also costs and competition. When national product complexity increases from low to high, it is positively correlated with industrial upgrading, but it is negatively correlated with industrial upgrading when product complexity reaches the upper level. Secondly, institutional quality has a significant positive moderating effect on the main relationship between product complexity and industrial upgrading, that is, it is easier for countries with higher institutional quality to achieve the positive effect of product complexity on industrial upgrading. Compared with economic institutions, the influence of the quality of political and financial institutions are more stable. Therefore, this article provides a reference for the theoretical research on the general rules of industrial upgrading, and a path available for China to facilitate the supply-side reform and move from a large manufacturing country to a powerful manufacturing country.

Key words         product complexity; institutional quality; industrial upgrading; product space

 

■     作者简介 马海燕，管理学博士，中国地质大学（武汉）经济管理学院副教授；湖北 武汉 430074。严 良，工学博士，中国地质大学（武汉）经济管理学院教授、博士生导师。

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