作　者：林毅夫
关键词：新时代；中美贸易战；国际金融危机；贸易保护主义；经济增长；改革开放；民族复兴
摘　要：

 作为一个发展中国家，中国凭借渐进双轨制的经济转型战略，避免了“休克疗法”所带来的经济崩溃和频发的危机，实现了年均 9.4% 的增长奇迹。当前，中国进入了新时代，又面临中美贸易争端激化，可从四个方面分析新时代中国经济和中美关系走向。第一，新时代，改革永远在路上；第二，中国仍然拥有巨大的经济发展潜力；第三，中美之间的经济结构是互补的，中美经贸关系可以实现双赢，美国的贸易逆差的原因不在中国，不在东亚，而是在美元是国际储备货币以及美国家庭低储蓄高消费的生活方式；第四，新时代中国可以通过扩大内需来实现经济增长。当前，中国在产业升级、基础设施、环保和城镇化方面仍有较高的投资回报，可以通过政府投资和民间投资来实现经济增长，这些都是发达国家不可比拟的。因此，利用中国增长潜力可以应对中美贸易争端。

■ 作者简介 林毅夫，经济学博士，北京大学新结构经济学研究院教授、博士生导师、院长，北京大学南南合作与发展学院院长，北京大学国家发展研究院名誉院长；北京 100871。

 

New Era in China and Trade War between China and the United States

Justin Yifu Lin (Peking University)

Abstract As a developing country, China adopted a dual-track transition strategy, achieving an average 9.4 % growth annually in the past 40 years, and avoided the transition collapse and frequent crises caused by shock therapy. At present, At the same time, China faces the challenge of trade war with the United States. This paper analyzes the prospects of China’s growth in the New Era and the Sino-US trade relation from four dimensions. First, in the New Era, reform will always be on the road. Second, China still has huge potential for economic development. Third, the economic structure between China and the United States is complementary, and Sino-US economic and trade relations can achieve a win-win situation. The main problem of the US trade deficit is not in China, not in East Asia, but in the way the US dollar is the international reserve currency and the American family’s low savings and high consumption lifestyle. Fourth, in the New Era, China can achieve economic growth by expanding domestic demand. At present, China still has a high return on investment in industrial upgrading, infrastructure, environmental protection and urbanization. It can relies on government investment and private investment to achieve economic growth. These are infeasible in developed countries. China’s growth potential can be relied on to cope with Sino-US trade disputes.

Key words New Era in China; trade war between China and United States;international financial crisis;trade protectionism;economics growth; the reform and opening-up policy;national rejuvenation

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