作　者：王倩 路京京
关键词：汇率冲击； 碳定价； 区域差异； Copula模型
摘　要：

汇率从能源相对价格和进出口渠道影响企业生产、冲击碳价。碳价影响低碳转型和减排主体的成本与发展权。在金融市场开放加速、汇率波幅增大的背景下，外汇市场对碳市场的冲击事关全国碳市场的成败与低碳减排的区域平衡发展。基于EGARCH\|Copula模型的计量研究发现，人民币汇率对试点碳市场的冲击呈显著的区域差异：对天津碳价有显著负向冲击，对北京、上海和深圳有显著正向冲击，对湖北和广东的正向冲击较弱；对北京、上海碳价的冲击呈显著上尾相关性，对广东呈下尾相关性。全国统一碳市场的制度设计应关注区域差异；考虑汇率冲击碳市场的区域异质性，构建联动机制，完善碳价管理体系；推动能源产品人民币计价，促进碳金融创新。

The Impact of Exchange Rate on China’s Carbon Price： From the Perspective of Regional Differences

Wang Qian & Lu Jingjing  （Jilin University）

Abstract:Exchange rate impacts carbon price by changing energy relative price，import and export.Carbon pricing not only affects low carbon transition but also influences abatement cost and development rights of emitters.In the context of speeding up of financial market’s opening up and the increasing of exchange rate volatility,the impact of foreign exchange market on carbon is a key factor for the success of the national unified carbon market and the regional balance development in mitigation.Based on an EGARCH-Copula model,we find the impacts of RMB exchange rates on the carbon prices of six pilot carbon markets in China has significant regional differences.The impact on the carbon prices in Tianjin is negative,but positive in the other five carbon markets; RMB exchange rate has a strong impact on the carbon prices in Beijing,Shanghai and Shenzhen,but weak in Tianjin,Hubei and Guangdong；RMB exchange rate has strong upper tail correlation with the carbon prices in Beijing and Shanghai,but strong lower tail correlation with the carbon prices in Guangdong.Therefore,the design of the national unified carbon market should take regional differences into account; establish a response mechanism and improve the carbon price management by considering the regional heterogeneity of external impacts of exchange rate market on carbon market, and strengthen the role of RMB in energy pricing and promote the carbon financial innovation.
 

Key words:exchange rate; carbon pricing; regional differences; Copula model

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