作　者：孟佩 徐宏毅
关键词：新型城镇化； 体育产业； 长期均衡关系； 短期动态关系
摘　要：

首先建立新型城镇化和体育产业发展水平评价指标体系，运用熵值法测算2006-2014年全国新型城镇化和体育产业发展水平综合指数。然后运用计量经济学方法对我国城镇化水平与体育产业发展关系进行实证分析，结果发现，我国城镇化水平与体育产业发展之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系；两者之间仅存在单向因果关系，城镇化水平的提高是体育产业发展的格兰杰原因；从短期来看，城镇化对体育产业的发展具有明显的促进作用，体育产业对城镇化则有一定的积极效应，但作用强度不大。

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between New-type Urbanization Level and Sports Industry Development in China
 

Meng Pei （Wuhan Sports University&Wuhan University of Technology）
Xu Hongyi （Wuhan University of Technology）

Abstract:Since China’s reform and opening up,China’s rapid urbanization process has attracted worldwide attention,but there’s a mismatch between the speed and quality of urbanization.Since the Eighteenth National Congress of the CPC,Chinese government has presented clear requirements of the construction of new-type urbanization with Chinese characteristics.Urbanization and industrial development are closely related.Therefore,it is an inevitable choice to promote the positive interaction of new-type urbanization and industrial development in order to improve the quality of urbanization.The new-type urbanization can be driven by the sports industry as a green engine,realizing the transformation and upgrading of the industrial structure and the mode of development.Meanwhile,the comprehensive development of urbanization has created favorable conditions for the development of the sports industry,and can further accelerate the upgrading of the internal structure of the sports industry.Thus,the new-type urbanization and the sports industry can form a virtuous cycle of mutual promotion.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to strengthen the study of the relationship between China’s urbanization and the sports industry for promoting the sustainable development of them.
The new-type urbanization is people-oriented urbanization,which aims to enhance the general function of the city and achieve coordinated and sustainable development of population,economy,society,ecological environment and other aspects.Therefore,this paper establishes the evaluation index system of new-type urbanization from the following five aspects:population development,economic development,spatial development,social development and ecological environment.The sports industry in the new period in China should be defined as practices in sports providing sports products and service to the public and meeting the demand of sports consumption.Consideration must also be given to upstream and downstream industries as well as emerging industries related to the sports industry.Besides,the integration of the sports industry with other industries should also be highlighted.Therefore,this paper establishes the evaluation index system of the sports industry from the following four aspects:industrial scale,human resources,demand market,the development of related industries and government input.This paper then uses entropy method to determine the weight of each index and measures the development level of new-type urbanization and sports industry from 2006 to 2014.Besides,this paper carries out an empirical analysis on the relationship between new-type urbanization and sports industry in China by adopting econometric methods.The main conclusion of this paper is as follows:
In general,China’s new-type urbanization and the sports industry show relatively consistent trend of steady growth.The results of cointegration test have indicated that there exists a long-term equilibrium relationship between new-type urbanization level and sports industry development in China.This dynamic equilibrium relationship shows that there has been a certain degree of coordination between urbanization and the development of sports industry since 2006 in China.1% increase of new-type urbanization level will promote the sports industry increases by 0.9456%.Granger Causality tests have indicated that there’s a one-way causal relationship between the level of urbanization and the development of sports industry.The improvement of the level of urbanization in China has promoted the development of sports industry,but the reverse is not true.The main reason is that the sports industry is essentially urban cultural industry,and urbanization is the prerequisite and foundation for the development of sports industry.Urbanization will promote industrial restructuring and upgrading and provide favorable conditions for the development of the sports industry.Therefore,the steady growth of the urbanization level in China provides momentum for the sustained development of sports industry.On the other hand,the scale of the sports industry in China still needs to be expanded and the internal structure needs to be optimized.The pulling effect of sports industry on other industries is not obvious.Consequently,the reverse effect of sports industry on urbanization is not strong.Impulse response function shows that urbanization has a significant promoting effect on the development of sports industry while sports industry only has a positive effect on urbanization to some extent and the effect is not significant.
Accordingly,we should continue promoting the construction of new-type urbanization,whose core is to achieve people-centered urbanization,making the new-type urbanization an important carrier to speed up the development of sports industry and promote sports consumption.Sports industry should comply with the requirements of new-type urbanization construction,realizing the transformation from high energy consumption driven to ecological driven.We should accelerate the elimination of excess production capacity of sports goods manufacturing industry and enhance the proportion of sports services industry.Besides,the sports industry should seize the opportunity of structural reform of supply side in China,and provide the corresponding products and services for the new demand and consumption structure brought about by urbanization.Chinese government should strengthen top-level design.The new stage and overall planning of China’s urbanization must be taken into full consideration in order to formulate a scientific development strategy of China's sports industry.In this way,a new pattern of interactive and coordinated development of new-type urbanization and the sports industry in China can be formed.
 

Key words:new-type urbanization; sports industry； long-term equilibrium relationship; short-term dynamic relationship

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